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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. The perception of the Marlins in this market is that they are one of the worst teams in the past two decades but truth be told, it is the Orioles that might be the worst team over the past three decades. That the Orioles are favored in this range is all the incentive we need here because they have a much better chance of losing than winning. Given the choice between Baltimore’s nine or Miami’s, we would take Miami’s 100% of the time. Both these teams rank dead last in their respective leagues (the AL and NL) but remember that Miami plays in a massive pitcher’s park while the Orioles play in a massive hitter’s park, therefore Baltimore’s OPS, SLG, OPS, runs scored, etc are pathetic. Baltimore’s team batting average is dead last in the majors and a smart pitcher will carve this lineup to pieces.

Enter Jose Urena (RHP) of the Marlins. Urena has taken some major steps forward this year, which is backed up by his underlying numbers.  The groundball lean he displayed prior to 2017 has returned and intensified and now sits at 52%. Improved first-pitch strike rate and Bball% fully back his significant control gains, as Urena has walked just 18 batters in 80 frames. While Urena benefited from some hit%/strand% luck in 2017, he has actually been hurt by a touch of misfortune in 2018, as the xERA/ERA of 3.75/4.59 illustrates. He’ll now face the easiest lineup he’ll ever have to face.

Kevin Gausman (RHP) was another high-upside starter who struggled in May (4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). But all of his struggles were on the surface. His skills were quite good with 8.7 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9 and, 53% grounders. However, Gausman is still too risky. He was hurt by a 37% hit rate in May and continues to give up hard hit balls. Pitching for the Orioles, that makes him too big a risk. He needs to do a better job of limiting hard contact in order to avoid the hit rate-fueled blowups that tend to plague him. His average opponent exit velocity of 89.8 mph is 127th among 145 qualified starters, and his barrel rate isn't much better (96th in MLB) but at the end of the day, the Orioles must be faded when priced in this range.

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