BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +154 BET365 +150 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +151

Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

4:05 PM EST. Win or lose, this might be the best value or biggest overlay on the board today. Sean Manaea (LHP) was one of the best starters in baseball at the outset of the season, but he has completely bottomed out recently, posting a 6.63 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP across seven starts since the beginning of May. The southpaw enjoyed outstanding batted-ball luck during his initial success this year, and his fortunes haven’t even been bad (.282 BABIP) since his struggles began. Manaea is horrible. He has walked 11 batters and struck out 13 over his past 25 frames and has a lousy 58 K’s in 80 innings this year. In his last start, his swing and miss rate was 3%. Manaea has a weak groundball/fly-ball split of 43%/35% to go along with an xERA of 5.86. xERA’s do not get much higher than that. Although Manaea gets to work at his pitcher-friendly home park on Sunday, he faces a Royals squad that ranks 16th in baseball in OPS vs. lefties (.716) and has struck out less often (461 times) than any other team.

Brad Keller (RHP) is getting his feet wet at this level and we like what the numbers are telling us. A Rule 5 draftee, Keller had a very nice spring, as he struck out 14 of the 44 batters he faced while walking only four. That was enough to stick with the Royals. Standing 6'5" and weighing 230 pounds, Keller looks like a workhorse pitcher. He has appeared in 23 games this season with two of those being as a starter, which is his long term goal and where he’ll very likely end up. Keller has struck out 13 batters over his last 16 innings. He has an elite groundball rate of 60% to go along with a 95 MPH heater. Keller has made the jump from Double-A to the big leagues but Kansas City is bringing him along the right way with an occasional start and a bunch of effective relief innings. His underlying stats support his decent results but more importantly, we’re thrilled to get the Royals at this price against the grossly overvalued Sean Manaea. 

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.