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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:40 PM EST. We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing all of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:

German Marquez (RHP) has handed out more free passes in 2018 than he did last year. However, he could provide a decent strikeout total against a Diamondbacks lineup that owns the fifth-highest K% vs. RHP. In a March 31 start at Arizona, Marquez walked four and struck out four in five scoreless innings. Even though fortune hasn't been on his side in home starts, a 16% hr/f and 7.22 ERA add ERA risk. 

Zach Greinke (RHP) has great numbers (3.44 ERA) and he also has 78 K’s in 73 innings but there are concerns. For one, his velocity is way down to 89.3 MPH and he’s now in his 14th year. His 41%/22%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is also the worst of his career. An 88% strand rate has aided his ERA so be careful about getting behind his good surface numbers.

Year to date: 10-13 +20.90 Units

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