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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

2:15 PM EST. Our attack on the overrated Cardinals continues here. Michael Wacha (RHP) has seemingly bounced back from two subpar seasons, going 6-1 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP across his initial 11 starts but the he hasn’t been quite as good as his surface stats indicate. Wacha's skills are uninspiring. He's given back the velocity and strikeout gains, reverting back to a more typical level, while his swinging strike has remained steady at a pedestrian 9%. Walks have been more of an issue than usual, and an ugly 50% first-pitch strike rate is an indication that he may continue to hand out his fair share of free passes. Wacha is throwing fewer pitches inside the zone than ever before, and batters aren't chasing out of the zone. According to FanGraphs, batters have swung at more than 30 percent of pitches out of the zone against him in his career, but just 23.3% of the time in 2018. He isn't keeping the ball on the ground as often as he usually does, instead allowing a lot of line drives and a top 10 hard contact rate. He's been helped by a low home run per fly ball rate, slightly elevated strand rate, and a .262 BABIP, which have helped him outperform his xERA by a wide margin. Wacha has compiled a solid ERA through his first 11 starts, but the underlying numbers are at least a little bit troubling. Opposing batters are laying off his pitches out of the zone, and both the walks and hard contact against him have jumped. Wacha's 4.24 xERA shows he's been extremely fortunate to this point, and his numbers will soon take a turn for the worse. Sell high.

Ivan Nova was placed on the 10-day disabled list on May 28, because of a sprained finger. The team subsequently recalled Nick Kingham (RHP) from Class AAA Indianapolis. Some might argue that the Pirates have a better rotation with this move. Nova had a 4.96 ERA, and his hr/9 over the last 31 days (2.3) is almost twice his career average (1.2). Add to that a 39% H% and a 63% S% and you have a struggling pitcher. Kingham, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise in his 18-inning sample. He's back for his third stint with Pittsburgh in 2018 with a 3.75 ERA (3.45 xERA), 24 K’s, 4 BB and a 10.3 K’s/9. Throw in rock solid sub-indicators of a 13% swing and miss rate, 67% first-pitch strikes, 94 MPH heat with life and one doesn’t need to look further to find where the value is in this game. Despite their 31-25 record, the Cardinals remain the most beatable over .500 teams in baseball.

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