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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

4:15 PM EST. The Phillies have scored zero runs in the past two games of this series and will now face a pitcher they have never seen before. The Phillies are grossly overvalued here because they have the recognizable Jake Arrieta (RHP) going against a rookie making his first major league start. Arrieta has way more market credibility than he should have, which is another house inefficiency we’ll look to exploit here. Jake Arrieta is a strong regression candidate for the coming weeks. After all, the 32-year-old owns stellar surface stats (2.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) despite logging a mediocre 2/1 bb/K ratio. Overall, his 4.22 xERA paints a better picture of a hurler who has been more acceptable than stellar from a skills standpoint this year. Arietta has a weak 7% swing and miss rate with just 40 K’s in 58 frames. The reason for his great actual ERA is because of a trifecta of good luck; that being a 27% hit rate, 82% strand rate and .263 BABIP. A heaping helping of good fortune has masked Arietta’s declining skills so rest assured that regression is 100% on the way.

If Dereck Rodriguez's (RHP) photo looks familiar, perhaps his full name will give it away: Ivan Dereck Rodriguez. Yes, this is Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez's son, a former outfielder in the Twins organization who shifted over to pitching in 2014. The 6'1", 215-pound righty has had more success on the mound than behind the plate. He has four pitches in his repertoire, starting with a low-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss curve. He also has a changeup and a slider. Although he was drafted in 2011, he basically restarted his minor league climb in 2014, and the 25-year-old has made steady progress since. Picked up by the Giants in the offseason, they started him in Triple-A Sacramento where he has been terrific, striking out 25% of the batters he has faced while walking only 5%. He has a slight fly-ball tilt that has led to a 2.0 hr/9 mark this year, though his new ballpark in San Francisco will help curb those tendencies. Rodriguez strikes guys out while not walking too many, and batters have hit only .248 against him in his minor league career. That gives him a decent career WHIP of 1.11.

Interestingly enough, I was watching Jeff Samardzija pitch for the Giants in Colorado last week when he was yanked after one inning after being injured. In came Dereck Rodriguez to make his MLB debut at Coors. The kid pitched 3.1 innings before being pulled after getting on the ankle by a comebacker. The ball wasn’t hit that hard but the Giants used caution and pulled him after 3.1 innings in which he struck out four and allowed one run. We bet the Rockies that night and was thrilled when Rodriguez was pulled because the kid was dealing it and I personally made note of it. He’s composed as can be, he’s talented, confident and his delivery is so free and easy. I-Rod used to bring his kid to the park almost daily. Dereck Rodriguez has been hanging around MLB dugouts and parks since he was seven years old and it shows. Man, did he look comfortable on that mound in his first MLB appearance. He’ll now get the benefit of facing a team that is gripping their bats a little tighter today and we absolutely trust that the undervalued Giants will be a little extra jacked up to give this excellent prospect some run support and his first win with his HOF dad (and family) flying in to see it. This kid can pitch.

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