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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

4:10 PM EST. We faded Felix Hernandez (RHP) as a -150 favorite in his last outing against Texas and cashed that ticket after the Rangers won, 9-5. At age 32, Felix Hernandez is finished. He’ll pitch until his contract expires or until his arm collapses (whichever comes first), but make no mistake that he’s batting practice out there. Suggesting that Hernandez is a shell of his former self now is understating it. After a promising start to the season, he now owns a mid-5s ERA, and his skills show no hope of improvement. Hernandez’s swing and miss rate is a very weak 7% He comes in with an xERA of 5.07 over his last five starts with a 1.59 WHIP. With a fastball that barely tops 88 mph now, he relies on deception and experience to succeed but this is what we call a dead arm. If Felix Hernandez wins today or has success, it’ll be due to nothing but plain old good fortune. Until he’s a deservedly big underdog, we’ll continue to bring down the hammer on this former king.

When a young pitcher fails to produce positive value in his first two seasons in the big leagues, he falls off the radar. Such has been the case with Blake Snell (LHP). Heading into 2018, he had yet to produce a positive market return with 12 wins in 43 starts over those two seasons but then something began to click around mid-season of 2017. Snell posted a 6.89 and 10.80 ERA last May and June respectively but in July, August and September, he posted a 3.80, 2.97 and 4.18 ERA respectively and so far he has carried that growth into 2018 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 70 innings.

Snell was drafted out of high school by Tampa Bay in the supplemental first round of the 2011 draft. Even though he was a high draft pick, Snell was inconsistent early on in his minor league career due to chronic control problems. The light came on for him after he was promoted to Double-A in 2015. He was pushed to Triple-A late in the season, where he became one of the premier starting prospects in the minors. After the 2015 season, he was ranked the #2 prospect in the game by Baseball America and given a 9C (out of 10) rating with #1 starter potential based on his four above-average pitches, including a mid-90s fastball and good off-speed stuff. Snell continued to look like a top prospect when he started the 2016 season at Triple-A. He got his first shot at the majors in 2016, showing both his upside (9.9 K’s/9) and risk (5.2 BB’s/9). After struggling to find the plate at several stops in the minors, that weakness would prove to be the primary reason that his development stalled during his first two seasons in the big leagues. Another tour of Triple-A the following season resurrected his upside.

It’s easy to see why Snell struggled in his first two years. He wasn’t able to find the plate with his slider or curveball, both of which were his top swing-and-miss pitches and he was not been able to throw his four-seam fastball consistently for strikes, a weakness that prevented him from being able to sequence his pitches effectively. He walked 110 batters in 218 frames over his first two seasons. At every stop he’s made, it has taken Snell a bit of time to begin dominating and now is his time at this level. In most cases, one should take spring training stats with a grain of salt except when they come from players on a growth curve like Snell. There wasn’t a more dominating pitcher in any spring camp than Snell, who got strikeouts in bunches and showed solid control (27/5 K/BB in 17 IP).

Snell’s growth in 2018 can be directly attributed to his curveball and slider. He is throwing both pitches over the plate with regularity His 20%+ swing and miss rate with both pitches gives him two legitimate strikeout offerings His four-seam fastball is generating more swinging strikes than ever before. Here is an example of a recent start (May 24) against the tough hitting Red Sox in which Snell strikes out eight and holds the Red Sox to three hits over six scoreless innings to earn his sixth win of the season:

Snell’s curveball continues to stymie batters. He has allowed only three extra-base hits with his curveball in 2018 and now has 76 K’s in 70 innings with just 23 walks issued and a skills supported 2.56 ERA. Blake Snell’s growth in 2018 has been the result of throwing a lot more strikes with his curveball and slider and his release points in 2018 show much less volatility than they have in the past. He has been filthy against LH bats with just 7 hits allowed against 63 batters for a BAA of .111. The Mariners will send up at least three left-handed bats and possibly four. Given Snell’s significant step forward late in 2017 and his further gains so far in 2018, he has re-established himself as one of the premium young arms in the game and is worthy of heavy investment when he’s evenly priced against a stiff like Hernandez. Value wise, this may be the best bet on the board. 

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