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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

10:00 PM EST. There's a stench wafting over McCovey Cove and it has nothing to do with the natural herbal blends that are enjoyed by the bleacher creatures in The Bay Area. On the surface, it seems absurd that the Giants rookie Andrew Suarez (LHP) is favored over someone performing at the level of his counterpart today, Vince Velasquez (RHP). We'll get back to Suarez in a minute but just to highlight our initial point, here is a rundown of what Velasquez has been up to as of late. The 25-year-old finished off an incredible May with a two-run, three-hit performance over 5.2 frames against the Dodgers on Monday night. He finished last month with a 2.30 ERA and 36 flameouts over just 27.1 innings across five starts. One of those games came at home in Philadelphia against these Giants when Velasquez racked up 12 K’s across just six innings and had the Giants’ hitters swinging at everything and hitting nothing. Yes indeed, much like last night, the Phillies look like the bargain of the day but once again we’ll warn you to slow down when looking at surface stats. Velasquez has had great success this year over a small sample size but he’s 26-years-old and was moved to the pen last season. His history of spotty control, high rate of hard contact, and ominous xERA trend are further evidence of his downside as a starter.

Andrew Suarez is 1-4 after seven starts with an ERA of 5.65. At home, Suarez is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and over his last three games, Suarez has posted an ERA of 7.20 over 15 frames. Andrew Suarez is another great example of how misleading surface stats can be because he’s actually one of the best pitchers in the National League. While most of this market will be looking to fade Suarez’s surface stats, be glad you are reading this before you make the same mistake. Suarez has 37 K’s in 37 innings with just eight walks issued. His groundball rate is only 46%, which isn’t bad at all but it’s worth noting that his groundball rate was 62% over his last two starts. Over his last five starts, Suarez has a BB/K split of 7/25 in 24 frames with an upper tier 3.13 xERA. Suarez’s 5.65 surface ERA has been sabotaged by an unlucky hit%/strand% combo of 35%/63%. His outstanding skills are hidden beneath that surface ERA but a big time correction to the good is forthcoming. Suarez and the Giants are a premium buy low target worth investing in.

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