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Posted at 9:35 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. This is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions in a hitter’s park. Value comes in different forms and we trust we’re getting the home side at a real bargain here.

Rick Porcello (RHP) disappointed in 2017 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. In early April, we mentioned that there was "an opportunity to profit" after his 2017 season and we did just that in a couple of early starts and this is another opportunity. Through 11 starts in 2018, Porcello has a 3.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and it’s all legit. In fact, it’s even a bit unlucky, as his xERA is even better at 3.48. Even though his velocity (90.4 MPH) is down a tick, his curveball, four-seam fastball, and slider all have a 12% swing and miss rate or higher. Inducing 66% grounders with his two-seam fastball has helped him trade groundballs for fly-balls. His elite first-pitch strike rate helps his control and he should continue to provide a better than league-average WHIP in 2018. Porcello's career-high across-the-board skills back his improvements. His return to his ground ball ways with elite command and a great strikeout rate (65 K’s in 67 IP) should continue to contribute to a strong season. These skills are worth the price today because Porcello will be facing Marco Estrada (RHP).

Estrada was the poster boy for out-pitching his peripherals but then suddenly, he wasn’t anymore. We’ve been warning you about this stiff for three years ago and while we hate to say, “we told you so”, we told you so. Normally, high flyball pitchers have a suppressed BABIP and he did in 2015 (.216) and 2016 (.234). In each of the last two seasons, it has jumped to .295. At the same time, his low 3’s ERA has jumped to near five. Without considering the good and bad results, here is a simple breakdown on Estrada pitches.

1. He’s 34-years-old and throws a sub-90 mph fastball.

2. He throws an above-average change with a 15.5% swing and miss rate on that pitch this season.
3. That’s basically it for his pitches. He throws a horrible curve (no swinging strikes this season, 3% last season) and cutter. each less than 10% of the time.

Marco Estrada is a two-pitch pitcher with a college fastball. Most of the pitchers (e.g. Chris Archer and Michael Pineda) who try to excel with just two pitches at least throw hard. Not Estrada. He rode a wave of EXTREME fortune for two years and even made the All-Star team, which just goes to show you how surface stats can be so misleading. With his repertoire, Estrada should be a team’s long reliever, not a starter. This is one of MLB’s worst starters and he’s the exact same guy today as he was two and three years ago with the difference being that all those hard hit balls are dropping in for singles or doubles or leaving the yard. Marco Estrada’s success for two years was a joke that has now gone bad.

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