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Posted at 11:15 AM EST

1:10 PM EST. Michael Fulmer (RHP) is 1-3 and has not won a game in his last seven starts, but he's had some good outings along the way including his last toe slab against the Mariners. In that one, Fulmer went 6.1 frames and struck out seven while allowing just three hits, but did not factor into the decision. Fulmer has yet to reach his full potential as a number one pick, but he has had an abbreviated-but-effective history against Minnesota. Fulmer defeated the Twins in his MLB debut in 2016 and is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.50 in his three career meetings with Minny. So far in 2018, Fulmer is sporting an ERA of 4.35, but his xERA is lower at 3.93. Fullmer’s recent form has been solid, as he has an xERA of 3.34 over his last five starts. Fulmer has increased his strikeout rate from 6.23 K/9 in 2017 to 8.01 so far this season.

Recent dominance over the Tigers has both the Twinkies and today's starter, Kyle Gibson (RHP) overvalued in this game. Minny has outscored Detroit 68-25 and is 9-1 over the last 10 meetings between these two sides. A 6-0 win by the Twins last night isn't going to do anything to change the perception that the Tigers are outclassed here, but that couldn't be further from the truth. The Twins have had trouble at home, compiling a .240/.314/.381 over their games at Target Field. Over its last nine games, Minny owns a .630 OPS and in his last start, Gibson was touched up for five runs on eight hits, including two home runs over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Brewers. That poor showing padded Gibson's already horrible home splits, as he sports a 6.16 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in four home starts in 2018. Gibson has struggled mightily this season with his control and he's walking more batters now than ever before at any level. Gibson's walk rate is 4.68 BB/9, which is up over the already awful 3.42 BB/9 he posted in 2017. Spotting a price like this with Gibson and the Twins in their home ballpark is a significant risk especially against a team that doesn't strike out as often as you might think. The Tigers fit that profile.

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