BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +141 BET365 +140 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +140

Posted at 11:15 AM EST

8:10 PM EST. Matt Boyd (LHP) kept the ball down early on last year but his previously consistent command collapsed, which lead to a June demotion. Upon his return, Boyd looked a lot like the rock-solid pitcher we saw in the second half of 2016, where his strong swing and miss and high number of strikeouts were offset by a heavy fly-ball lean. That fly-ball lean is still there, as Boyd’s groundball/fly-ball split is 32%/48% but we can live with that, as Boyd brings a skills supported 3.19 ERA into this game after his first eight starts. Boyd has a nice BB/K split of 13/41 in 49 innings with a 13% swing and miss rate and is holding left-handed batters to a terrible .146 BA and .415 OPS. Over his last four starts, he has shown very nice skills with a 3.53 xERA, 9.7 K’s/9, 2.2 BB’s/9 and a 13% swing and miss rate. Matt Boyd may never be a top-tier pitcher but at age 27, he’s figured it out and is damn close to being a top second tier pitcher. He’s also wiothout question the superior starter in this matchup.

Lance Lynn (RHP) returned from Tommy John surgery in 2017. Good fortune found him, as a 25% hit rate and a 78% strand rate allowed him to post a 3.43 ERA (4.61 xERA). In the second half, his strikeouts (6.3 per nine) and skills found a new low. That profile still carries a ton of risk, as Lynn can’t find the strike zone with his sinker and therefore hitters are sitting on his fastball. Lynn has walked 29 batters in 37 frames and brings a 2.04 WHIP into this game. That’s a lot of traffic and high number of stressful pitches. Lefties continue to torch him to the tune of a .818 OPS. Lynn's skills and xERA are trending in the wrong directions. At the end of the day, there are too many ways for Lynn to lose a ball game and he cannot be priced in this range. Overlay.

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