San Diego @ PITTSBURGH
San Diego +128 over PITTSBURGH

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle  +128 BET365 +120 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +126

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

1:35 PM EST. Jordan Lyles (RHP) has been among the most skilled pitchers in the game in his last two starts and is on the heels of striking out 10 batters across 7.1 innings of one-hit ball last time out. However, Lyles also has a lifetime 5.30 ERA so the market isn’t really convinced yet. A look under the hood reveals that it’s all legit, as Lyles has added another pitch to his arsenal, has a tremendous 62% groundball rate and also has an elite BB/K split of 9/32 in 32 frames with a supported 14% swing and miss rate.

Trevor Williams’ (RHP) solid surface stats (2.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) are not going to hold up much longer. The right-hander has benefited greatly from a .236 BABIP while logging a 1.8 K/BB ratio and his 4.93 xERA is a better reflection of how poorly he has pitched this season. Trevor Williams has walked 20 and struck out 35 in 53 frames. He has a groundball rate of 37%. His unsustainable strand rate of 80% (100% in his last game) is what is keeping his surface stats looking pretty. There is nothing pretty about Williams’ skills and if the Padres don’t blow up his stats, his next opponent likely will. A monkey dressed in silk is still a monkey and Trevor Williams is one of the games’ early season imposters.

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Our Pick

San Diego +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)

Chicago -103 over Boston