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Posted at 12:30 PM EST

10:15 PM EST. The Reds got pounded in the opener of this series last night but that’s not going to deter us from coming right back on them here against Ty Blach (LHP). Blach is a soft-tosser that walked a fine line all of last year and nothing has changed this year in nine starts. His late struggles last year eventually cost him his rotation spot but he’s back in the rotation this year because the Giants are dealing with injuries to better starters. Ty Blach has delivered a 4.20 ERA over those nine starts covering 49 frames but it’s a massive mirage. Blach has walked 16 batters and struck out 25 in 49 innings to form one of the worst K-rates and ratios among starters in the league. The only thing he has going for him is a strong groundball rate and his home park but this is not a good matchup for Blach and his horrible .972 OPS v righties. The Reds rank 8th in MLB in OPS v lefties and there aren't enough LHB in the majors to make Blach a useful starter.

Meanwhile, Tyler Mahle (RHP), if he isn’t already, will be Cincinnati’s ace. Mahle is one of our top-5 under the radar starters in MLB that not many know about. Though Mahle had a better ERA during his four-start MLB debut in 2017, his 2018 skills have been far superior, with gains in control, strikeouts, and command but thanks to a huge swing in hr/f luck, his ERA thus far isn't reflecting the skill improvement. Mahle’s  control growth has good first-pitch support (62%), but the huge leap in K’s (44 in 44 innings) seems a little questionable. His minor-league k-rates never got this high but let’s not ignore a strong 12% swing and miss rate, which supports the gains. There's a lot to like in what the 23-year-old Mahle has done so far in 2018, and his skills indicate that he's undervalued right now. With his strikeouts looking like a possible candidate for some mild regression, his upside is reflected in his 3.61 xERA after eight starts and xERA does not take into consideration park factors. Mahle pitches half his games at hitter friendly Great American Ballpark and will now take those skills to pitcher friendly AT&T to face a San Fran nine that has struck out the most times in the league and that is also without one of its best hitters, as Alen Hanson hit the DL yesterday (.298 4HR’s, 12 RBI’s).

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