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Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Ivan Nova (RHP) is off to a good start with a BB/K split of 6/35 in 43 innings to go along with his acceptable and serviceable 4.01 ERA after seven starts. There are some bankable skills in Nova’s profile to be sure - pinpoint control and a nice 53% groundball rate but truth be told, Ivan Nova is a middle of the rotation guy and will be never be anything more than that. Furthermore, left-handed batters have feasted on Nova in recent years, crushing a total of 34 HR in 868 PA from 2015-17, including 16 jacks in 364 PA in 2017 and six more this year. That said, this wager is not about fading Nova.

Before we discuss Lucas Giolito (RHP), allow us to point out that since 1976, April is the most inaccurate month of the baseball season in terms of projecting how a pitcher, batter or team will do based on what happened in April. In April, walks are higher than any other month by 6% and that’s just one example among many others regarding April’s skewed numbers. Whether it’s pitcher rust, cold weather, the start of the season or a combination of all the above, the point is not to put a lot of emphasis on April stats or records. That brings us to Lucas Giolito.

Giolito’s stock is way the f**k down because he’s walked 23 batters and struck out just 18 in 32 innings. That has led to a 7.03 ERA. His command building blocks are just as messy with a 9% swing and miss rate, 46% first-pitch strike rate and 47% ball%. At home, Giolito is a 0-2 with a 16.43 ERA and overall, the kid looks like a total mess but do not be influenced by mostly what happened in April. There might also be some pick-sellers pimping out the Pirates today because of the contrast in surface ERA’s between these two starters, not to mention the South Side’s 9-23 record.

Trust us when we tell you that Giolito has filthy stuff and he delivers that filthy stuff in four different pitches. In Windy Chicago in frigid temperatures, Giolito could not get his secondary stuff over the plate. However, things were warmer in his last start when he whiffed seven batters and walked just two in 6.1 solid innings against the Cardinals. In sunny and warm Florida this past spring, Giolito was dealing it and was creating quite a buzz. Here’s an example of his filthy stuff against the Cubbies in a game at Wrigley last summer.  

Look at this nasty change:

Look at this damn breaking ball

Look at this other damn breaking ball

Giolito finished with eight strikeouts in four innings against the Cubs that day and he looked comfortable with his delivery. He looked comfortable in his last start too. Those flashes of brilliance are indicative of what made Giolito a top-five global prospect with the Nationals in 2016, when four years after having Tommy John surgery, he was a 21-year-old throwing 98-99 mph with a hook that killed. The results this year are indicative of what happens when he gets out of sorts on the mound but again, it was in cold weather. In his last start, Giolito’s swing and miss rate was 16% with a 50% groundball rate and low 14% line-drive rate. This is a kid who has a plus changeup, who can and will throw it in any count. He has three other plus pitches that he will also throw at any time. We can’t say that Lucas Giolito is about to be an ace. We can say that he’s throwing harder. Giolito doesn’t need to add a pitch. The pitches are all there. He needs to make the pitches do what he wants. If Giolito’s in the process of clearing that hurdle, then there’s not much else that can get in his way. Giolito is one of the biggest under-the-radar starters in baseball and holds some massive profit potential in that right arm of his that hopefully starts here.

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