BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +138 BET365 +135 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +135

Posted at 8:50 AM EST.

8:05 PM EST. Win, lose or get blown out here, this line is way out of whack and must be bet. The Red Sox are sort of lighting the league on fire although the Rays cooled them off last weekend while the Royals gave them much more than they bargained for in the last series. Boston will now enter this series at an extreme hitting park with a taxed bullpen and a not so strong starter going and yet you will stay pay a premium to back them. 

David Price (LHP) is a former ace who resembled one early (2.25 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in first 20 innings) but his underlying skills didn't support those stats. Price still has respectable surface stats (3.78 ERA after 33 frames) but his underlying numbers continue to deteriorate. Price’s swing and miss rate is 9% but it is at just 5% over his last 13 innings. He comes in with a 5.69 xERA over his last three starts and he’s barely averaging over five innings per start over that same span. Given his injury history, increasing HR/F rate and decreasing groundball rate, now is a great time to start selling Price whenever he’s overpriced like he is here.

Mike Minor’s (LHP) transition to pen last season couldn't have gone better after missing two years. Minor’s amped velocity (+4 to 94 MPH) and increased slider usage (+11 to 36%) was the route to a brilliant effort. Minor’s K-rate, command, first-pitch-strike rate, swing and miss rate, groundball rate, and hr/f were all career bests, improving beyond normal starter-to-reliever gains. However, Mike Minor was always a starter at heart and wanted to start as oppose to relieve or close and the Rangers obliged. In 27 innings, Minor has a BB/K split of 6/24, he’s still throwing 94 MPH heat with sink and he has an elite swing and miss rate of 14%. With an xERA of 3.63 and increasingly good stuff, Mike Minor is far under the radar and should absolutely not be priced in this range at home against average starters like the one he’ll face here. Mike Minor has only allowed four earned runs in 16 innings at home with the kicker being that the Red Sox have been the AL's worst team against lefties, with a .545 OPS. Massive overlay that’ll hopefully go our way.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.