BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -104 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -105

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Zach Eflin was rated as one of the top prep pitchers in the 2012 MLB Draft out of Hagerty HS in Oviedo, Florida and at one point was considered a top-10 selection. Bonus demands and an inconsistent season year caused him to slide, but the Padres scooped him up with the 29th pick that June. After two solid—if not awe-inspiring—seasons with San Diego, he was dealt to the Dodgers in the Matt Kemp trade. His stay in Los Angeles was short, however, as he was traded a short time later from Los Angeles to Philadelphia in the Jimmy Rollins deal. In 2016, Eflin posted a 2.90 ERA at Lehigh Valley while striking out 55 in just over 68 innings. Eflin is seen as an extremely projectable right-hander. What he does have is an above-average fastball offering that will touch the mid-90s; sitting 90-93 mph with excellent sink. His best off-speed pitch is his change—a pitch that he can locate for strikes and has excellent deception with tumble that leads to lots of weak contact. He throws both a slider and a curveball, and while neither pitch flashes much more than average, the pitches don’t run into each other, and that gives him four useable offerings. It’s not the sexiest arsenal, but it works. Eflin has made four minor league starts this year and has a 3.83 xERA over 20 frames with a BB/K split of 5/20. He throws strikes, he works fast and may or may not have a good outing here. Whatever the case may be, we’ll live with it because this wager is not about getting behind Eflin, it’s about fading Jarlin “the Marlin” Garcia. 

The April 24 game between the Marlins and Dodgers in L.A. garnered a lot of attention, as it was the season debut and first ever start for Dodgers uber-prospect Walker Buehler, but his less-heralded counterpart put up six strong innings for the Marlins, too. Jarlin Garcia actually bumped his ERA up with a six-inning, one earned-run outing, as he now sits at a 1.00 ERA through 27 innings. He opened the season with six one-hit innings of relief in that Cubs/Marlins 17-inning epic on March 30th, the second day of the season. After five appearances and three starts, Garcia has some sweet surface stats (1.00 ERA - 0.81 WHIP). To recap, Garcia one-hit the Cubbies in six frames, one-hit the Yanks in five frames, no-hit the Mets in six innings, and four-hit the Dodgers in six innings and now you will pay to back a very average pitcher. If Philadelphia was -140 yesterday against Miami’s “ace” Dan Straily, why are they an underdog today? Again, you’ll be paying for the surface stats that Jarlin the Marlin has put up.

Jarlin’s 20% strikeout or his 12% walk rate is anything special. In fact, they are both below average for starts (22% and 9%, respectively). He does have a 47% groundball rate so he’s keeping the ball down better than average but a pitcher really needs to be in the 50s to 60s for the groundball rate to be a major contact management asset. Add it all up and Garcia’s .365 xwOBA (a catchall that aims to estimate what the pitcher’s skills and batted balls should’ve netted) is 89th out of 121 pitchers with at least 300 pitches this year. That puts him smack dab in between Marco Gonzales (also .365) and Matt Harvey (.366). For context, Jose Berrios (.217), Rick Porcello (.219), and Patrick Corbin (.223) are pacing the league while Max Scherzer (.246) and Corey Kluber (.254) led baseball last year (min. 2000 pitches). No one has a larger split in their actual and expected wOBA totals than Garcia’s 168-point split. The next largest split is Francisco Liriano at 126 points.

Garcia is also walking four batters per nine innings. As major league hitters begin to realize that Garcia has little in his arsenal that should scare them and that he is a bit reluctant to work in the zone, there will be some adjustments to him that could pose a problem. Incidentally, Philadelphia has seen him once already and they got to him for two runs in four innings. Anyway, if you put those rates together with the results that Garcia has been able to deliver thus far, you might conclude that there has been a bit of luck involved. A look at the numbers says it’s been even more than a bit. Garcia’s BABIP this season is a tiny .121 and his strand rate is at 99 percent. Those numbers are crazy! Any kind of regression would likely have a big impact on Garcia’s results.

The temptation is strong. Getting behind a rookie with a 1.00 ERA after 27 innings looks appealing but chances are great that Garcia won’t simply regress to the mean, but that he could easily give up five, six or more runs for several starts in a row. Never ever buy high on a rookie whose skills do not come close to supporting his surface stats.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.