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Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. This is a great time to get behind good pitchers with weak ERA’s because corrections are coming and nobody exemplifies this more than Luis Castillo (RHP). After five starts, Castillo is 1-3 with a disastrous 6.51 ERA but his xERA is almost 2½ full runs lower at 4.06. Castillo has lost some velocity (95.2 MPH) and some swings and misses (5.7%) with his fastball. His change-up (32% swing and miss) is still devastating, and he can keep the ball on the ground (49%) with three pitches. A matchup with Minnesota's below-average offense (.306 wOBA-22nd) and his across-the-board marks support his strong-start status. This kid can pitch and he’s damn good too but a very unlucky 57% strand rate has wreaked havoc on his ERA.

Phil Hughes gave up 11 runs in 16.1 innings this past spring. He has made one three-inning start for the Twins this year and in that start he surrendered five hits, one jack, two runs and walked two against the Rays. Back in 2014, the Twins signed Hughes to a $58 million, five-year contract that added $42 million in guaranteed money from 2017-19. That’s not a typo but it is the reason why Phil Hughes is near a pitching mound. If he wasn’t being paid a guaranteed outrageous figure, he wouldn’t be anywhere near a pitching mound, let alone one at this level. Hughes' chronic back issues forced him to the DL in mid-August of 2016. Last year wasn’t any better, as he threw a mere 54 innings, which also saw a steady velocity decline that bottomed out at 87 mph in September. Phil Hughes is a broken down starter. He reported soreness in his left side in late March and was also day-to-day in the spring with an oblique strain. If he and the Twinkies win here, good for them but he’s only starting (pitching) because the Twinkies would rather lose and see him get whacked than pay him $173,000.00 a week to look pretty. That’s right, Minnesota is paying Hughes 173K a week but we’ll fade him every single time he’s evenly priced, favored or a small pooch against anyone. That Castillo is a pooch to this stiff is not only nuts. It’s true value.  

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