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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

1:05 PM EST. The Yanks come into this one as a .500 ball club at 9-9 while the Blue Jays are quietly 13-6 and perhaps this year’s biggest surprise thus far. What makes that even more remarkable is that Toronto has been without Kendrys Morales for 10 days (he returned yesterday) and without Josh Donaldson for a number of games also. Teoscar Hernandez forced his way into the starting lineup for five straight games now and appears to be in the process of shedding any notions of a value-limiting timeshare despite being one of five outfielders on Toronto’s roster. With a string of multi-hit games, power and speed in the toolbox, and a favorable hitting environment, he’s fit right in and may not come out. There is no estimated duration yet for Donaldson’s DL trip, which will feature an independent throwing program at the Blue Jays spring training facility. Meanwhile, another day, another path to playing time opens up for Yangervis Solarte, whose .316/.447/.553 slash line leads all Blue Jay regulars. He will see regular time at 3B and is another reason that the Jays are doing well. The pitching has been solid too, including the bullpen but the biggest disappointment thus far has been the starter the Jays were relying on most, Marcus Stroman (RHP), who comes into this start with 0-1 record after three starts to go along with a fat 7.98 ERA. That’s why we get the Jays at an inflated price here.

Stroman is a prime example of why we say "buy skills, not stats." By skills, he's a mid-3s ERA pitcher and he continues to possess one of the more unique collections of skills in the game. He can keep the ball on the ground at a rate higher than any pitcher in the game and has generated a high rating in his command in each season. Stroman’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate this season is an amazing 70%/15%/15% and he has 16’ K’s in 15 frames. The reason for the high ERA is an uncharacteristic 10 walks and unlucky 56% strand rate. His strand rate last year was 80%. Strand and hit rates are luck driven numbers and in that regard, Stroman’s strand rate and surface ERA are in line for a big time correction to the good, and as a groundball pitcher at this park, he’s very much worth a bet against New York’s fly-ball pitcher.

Jordan Montgomery comes in with a 1-0 record and 4.70 ERA after three starts. This unheralded southpaw had an impressive debut, as his 4-pitch arsenal gave him weapons vL and vR with a healthy K-rate and swinging strikes combo. His strand rate wavered and inflated his 2nd half ERA, but part of it was a tighter leash. His fly-ball rate presents HR’s concern, but everything else points to mid-rotation potential, which is not enough to get us to back off this live underdog today. The Yanks pen has been giving up runs in bushels, as they are second last in MLB in allowing inherited runners to score, ahead of only the Royals while Toronto’s pen ranks first in that area.

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