BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +104 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 DIMES +100

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. After a torrid start, the Mets have regressed a bit with three losses in their last four games including the last two to these Nationals. Steven Matz (LHP) has started strongly with a 3.77 ERA over his first three starts to go along with 17 K’s in 14 frames but those K’s are not supported by the underlying sub-indicators. In fact, Matz has just a 7% swing and miss rate, which means big time regression in his K’s/9 is absolutely forthcoming. Matz was supposedly ready following an Oct '16 bone spur removal and then he was DLed last year during spring training and resurfaced in June. His K-rate was M.I.A. before he was shut down for good in August. He’s now in the rotation again after more elbow surgery (compressed nerve correction). Matz’s considerable skills are not yet a distant memory, but multiple surgeries may be chipping away and he cannot be favored over Tanner Roark (RHP) here and a heating up Nats' offense.

Tanner Roark has a high strikeout rating for this matchup after some nice swing and miss numbers against the Mets two starts back. In fact, over his last 18 innings vs. NYM, he’s punched out 23 batters. He’s a very good road pitcher with a solid history at Citi Field (2.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) too. That said, this wager is more about backing the Nationals hot offense against a false favorite.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.