Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
7:10 PM EST. Rick Porcello (RHP) won his first two starts by dominating the Tampa Bay Rays in both, while posting a phenomenal 11/1 K/BB split in 12.2 innings pitched. That sounds a lot like David Price’s first two starts, which also occurred against the Rays. As David Price found out last night, the Yankees represent a different level of test. Porcello struggled in Fenway Park last year, with a 5.43 ERA. Porcello still brings excellent control but what he doesn’t bring is the ability to dominate. Once a groundball artist, Porcello is now a fly-ball machine, which won't help his 1.7 HR/9 from 2017. Rick Porcello is a solid No. 4-5 starter but he’s priced like an ace here over an ace. That can’t be.
A disastrous 2016 campaign coupled with a preseason lateral injury sent Sonny Gray's (RHP) stock tumbling entering 2017. Gray went on to post up a 3.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 27 starts. Gray's uptick in K’s last year jumps off the page and it was supported by a career-high swinging-strike rate. The jump in whiffs can mostly be attributed to Gray's sinker (career 7% swing and miss rate; 13% in 2017). That sinker and Gray's four-seam fastball account for 64% of his pitches. They've produced a combined 58% groundballs, making Gray's ability to keep the ball on the ground a formidable asset. Over two starts this year, Gray has struck out 12 batters in 10 frames while inducing 64% groundballs. His swinging strike rate is 14% and if not for an unlucky 50% strand rate in his last start, his ERA would be very strong. It’s still good at 3.60 but his xERA is 3.09 and he’s always pitched well at Fenway. Sonny Gray is going to get better as the weather heats up but he’s still worth purchasing at these bargain prices.
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N.Y. Yankees -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)