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San Francisco @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO +124 over San Francisco

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +124 BET365 +115 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +121

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. San Fran is 5-6 after 11 games and come into this one as the chalk because San Diego’s stock is so low because they’ve opened with a 4-9 record after 13 games but the Padres are much better than that and the wins are going to start piling up. This is a good place to start.

Chris Stratton has started two games for the Giants this season and has walked four batters and struck out seven over 10.1 innings. He also surrendered nine hits and six runs over those 10.1 frames. Last season, Stratton went 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 59 innings over 10 starts and three relief appearances. In 2016, Stratton appeared in relief seven times. There were a few signs of life last year from the former first rounder, as he notched a couple of big strikeout games, and threw more strike-ones. However, he still gives up lots of hard contact, swinging strike rate (9%) doesn't support further strikeout rate upside, and his second half ERA was strand-rate driven (80%). Is "very mediocre" an oxymoron?

Bryan Mitchell has walked nine batters and struck out one over 11 frames this season and that is going to stick out to a lot of bettors today. However, Mitchell had a 67% first-pitch strike rate last game and while his control has never been elite, it’s never been this shaky either. Mitchell created a little buzz this spring following his move to the National League, accompanied by an expected transition back to a starting role. While he possesses a live arm, as well as a ground ball lean, the rest of the package is in need of some refining. However, that can be said about a lot of pitchers. Mitchell will throw some gems this year because his groundball rate is high (55%) and because he has a live arm. He averages 95 MPH on his heater. Both pitchers bring risk but ours is taking back a price at home and that’s all the incentive we need to step in here.

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Our Pick

SAN DIEGO +124 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.48)

 

 

bet365

San Diego -1 +250 over COLORADO
Atlanta -103 over CINCINNATI
N.Y. Mets +125 over ST. LOUIS