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Cincinnati @ PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati +127 over PITTSBURGH

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +127 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +130

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. This might be the best bet of the day. This is Homer Bailey’s second year back from TJS. He missed most of the first half last year following surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. His surface stats were unsightly but his velocity, swing and miss rate and first-pitch strike rate returned to near pre-injury level, as he clawed his way back to form (Sept: 4.08 ERA, 4.02 xERA). Bailey is also one of the rare pitchers who has performed considerably better in his career when he is not pitching at home. He has made 10 starts in Pittsburgh at PNC Park, going 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 65.1 IP and he was absolutely solid in his season debut against a much tougher Nationals’ squad.

Steven Brault vaulted to the majors in 2016 when he posted a 4.86 ERA in 33.1 innings with Pittsburgh. He was originally an 11th round pick of the Orioles in 2013 before being sent to the Pirates in February 2015. Last season, Brault rode the shuttle between the majors and minors more than a few times. He started four games for the Pirates and appeared in seven other. In 2016, he started seven games, thus, Brault has started 11 major league games and appeared in relief in another nine games over two seasons and has pitched 71 overall innings. Over that span, Brault has a disturbing 1.69 WHIP. He has a just as disturbing 5.71 xERA and most of those innings have come at pitchers parks. Brault throws strikes and has three pitches but none are elite or even above average and he hasn’t fooled anyone yet. Steven Brault didn’t even make the rotation out of spring. He appeared in relief in the Pirates 12-inning game last week against the Phillies and picked up the win by throwing three innings of two-hit scoreless ball. Just remember, all players were frozen at that point and everyone just wanted to go home. The Pirates are a weak team with a weak pitcher here spotting a stupid price. 

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)

 

 

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