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Minnesota @ BALTIMORE
Minnesota -117 over BALTIMORE

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -117 BET365 -120 SportsInteraction -120 5DIMES -116

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. If you're familiar with Kyle Gibson, you probably took interest in him when he posted a 3.84 ERA during his age-27 season in 2015. And if you took interest in him then, you'll probably also recall that he posted identical 5.07 ERAs the two subsequent seasons. Now, at age 30, is there any reason to remain interested in Gibson? Gibson induces whiffs with three off-speed pitches: slider (21% swing and miss rate), change-up (17% swing and miss rate), and curve ball (14% swing and miss rate). This arsenal is capable of producing 8 + K’s/9.

His primary fastball is a heavy sinker that garners groundballs at a very high rate (65%), and is an optimal weapon to combat the long ball. Opposing hitters average exit velocity on fly-balls off Gibson was 90.9 mph in 2017, which is below the league average of 91.2 mph. Yet batters enjoyed a 18% hr/f rate against him, though the league average hr/f was only 13.7%. Ergo, positive hr/f regression seems likely in 2018. One of the big factors in his second half surge was a significant command spike vs LHB. Given his sub-command levels from previous years, this would be a major break-through, if sustained. Gibson pitched well in spring training and is locked into the #2 spot in the starting rotation to begin the season. He may not have true breakout upside, but if it all comes together he could finish the season on the right side of profit. That said, this one is all about fading Andrew Cashner.

Drastic changes in pitch mix, including the elimination of his slider (lifetime 17% swing and miss rate), addition of a cutter and return of his 2014-15 sinker-heavy approach yielded a pretty picture for Cashner in 2017. However, the puny K-rate/swing and miss combo, cratering skills, horrid dominant start/disaster start split and giant ERA/xERA chasm show that it's a mirage. Andrew Cashner had a nifty 3.40 ERA over 167 IP in 2017, which will entice lots of bettors to get behind him here. Don't follow suit. The upside Cashner used to carry is long gone. He was helped by a 27% hit rate and 77% strand rate in 2017. His skills were horrible (4.6 K’s/9, 3.5 BB’s/9) and he also goes for Petco Park to Camden Yards. Fade Cashner whenever the price is reasonable to do so like it is here.

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Our Pick

Minnesota -117 (Risking 2.34 units - To Win: 2.00)




BALTIMORE -1 +176 over N.Y. Mets
Chicago -1 +215 over DETROIT
Miami +177 over ATLANTA
COLORADO +190 over Houston
Sports Interaction
Sports Interaction