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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA

Stream:ESPN

Tulane +6½ -110 over Memphis

7:30 PM EST. Friday night at Yulman, Memphis is laying 6.5 on the road. Here's the thing about Tulane: they haven't played a game all season that wasn't a street fight — 17-3, 28-24, 31-20, 24-21, 20-17. This team doesn't do blowouts; it does four-quarter anxiety attacks. Laying nearly a touchdown on the road in conference play against a team that lives in one-score games is how you end up starring in a bad-beats segment.

The matchup math likes the Wave, too. Memphis's offense is a Ferrari — seventh nationally at 517 yards a game, with Marcus Stokes throwing touchdowns like he's got a quota — but their run defense is a screen door: 118th in yards per rush allowed, 16th percentile in stuff rate. Tulane's ground game got rolling in both wins, the offense has turned it over just three times all season, and they sit in the 85th percentile in explosive plays against a defense in the 36th percentile at preventing them. Run it, don't give it away, take your shots downfield — that's a cover recipe, laminated.

Sure, the other side: Tulane's defense can't get off the field either (opponents convert 49% on third down, fifth-worst in the country), and Stokes is cooking right now. Memphis probably wins — the moneyline implies about 73%. But 6.5 points is a lot to lay with a defense that can't stop the run, on the road, on a Friday night, against a team that refuses to lose by more than a score. Take the points, take the home dog, and enjoy the game. 

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