Penn State @ Northwestern
Northwestern +125 over Penn State

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Ryan Field, Evanston, IL

Stream: FOX

Northwestern +125 over Penn State

8:00 PM EST. Welcome home. Northwestern finally opens the doors to its rebuilt Ryan Field, an $850-million-plus palace with only about 35,000 seats, designed in part to make sure the place actually sounds like Northwestern's stadium instead of a neutral-site game whenever Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State comes to town. Tickets disappeared almost immediately. After playing its home games elsewhere during construction, the Wildcats finally get their building back, under the lights, against Penn State. If Northwestern needs help getting emotionally invested in this one, somebody should check its pulse.

The bigger point is that this isn't just a stadium angle. Northwestern might actually be pretty damn good. The Wildcats destroyed Colorado 41-7 and then took defending national champion Indiana to the wire. Chip Kelly has shown a willingness to change the offense to fit what he has, including incorporating a modified Wing-T look that gave Indiana problems. Aidan Chiles' mobility adds another wrinkle, and much of Northwestern's offensive production has come from scheme rather than simply overpowering opponents at the line of scrimmage. That's encouraging when stepping up against another talented defense.

Penn State has issues of its own. The Nittany Lions just blew a 17-0 home lead against Wisconsin, and their passing game remains a concern. Rocco Becht completed only 12 of 29 passes for 114 yards while repeatedly attacking downfield without much success. Now he gets a Northwestern secondary that has been one of the strengths of this team. If Penn State can't generate explosive plays through the air, this has every chance to become exactly the kind of ugly, possession-by-possession Big Ten game that favors the home dog.

And let's not forget what happened when these teams met last year. Northwestern walked into Beaver Stadium as a massive underdog and left with a 22-21 outright victory, controlling the football for nearly 35 minutes and winning the first-down battle 23-13. That doesn't guarantee anything tonight, but it certainly removes any notion that Northwestern needs a miracle to compete with Penn State.

We're not interested in taking the three points. At +125, we'll take our chances that Northwestern finishes the job outright. New stadium. Sold-out crowd. Friday night. A Penn State team coming off a brutal collapse. And most importantly, a Northwestern team that's giving us legitimate reasons to believe its early-season performance isn't a fluke.

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Our Pick

Northwestern +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

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