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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Clemson -3 -110 over North Carolina

12:00 PM EST. When was the last time Clemson's stock was this low? Seriously. The Tigers are 1-1, their offense has produced all of 32 points in two games, their starting quarterback is hurt, and true freshman Tait Reynolds is getting his first career start. Waiting on the other sideline is Bill Belichick, North Carolina is 2-0, and virtually everything we've read this week explains why the Tar Heels are the right side. Bill Belichick against a freshman quarterback? How could anyone possibly bet Clemson? That's precisely why we're betting Clemson.

This number opened considerably higher and has been hammered down toward a field goal because nobody trusts the Tigers anymore. We understand why. Clemson was embarrassed by LSU and then slogged through a 22-7 win over Georgia Southern that wasn't exactly suitable for framing. Reynolds threw for 178 yards after replacing Christopher Vizzina and now Dabo Swinney is handing him the keys. Meanwhile, North Carolina just beat East Tennessee State 35-3, Billy Edwards Jr. has yet to throw an interception and Belichick's arrival has given the Tar Heels instant credibility. One program suddenly feels fresh and interesting. The other feels like somebody found Clemson's dynasty in a box marked "FREE" at a garage sale.

But here's the part that interests us: despite all of that, Clemson is still favored. If the Tigers are finished, their offense is hopeless, Reynolds is walking into Belichick's laboratory and undefeated North Carolina is the ascending team, then what the hell are the Tar Heels doing getting points? The market has already chopped this number down dramatically. At some point the discount becomes the handicap. We couldn't care less that Clemson dominated this series years ago or covered some meaningless collection of spreads under circumstances that have nothing to do with Saturday. We're interested in buying Clemson today, when practically nobody wants anything to do with them.

There may not be another point this season when Clemson is available this cheaply at Death Valley against an opponent like North Carolina. The Tigers still have a defense capable of carrying an offense that's trying to find itself, and perhaps getting away from what wasn't working at quarterback isn't the catastrophe everyone is treating it as. Reynolds doesn't have to become Trevor Lawrence by lunchtime. More importantly, we're laying only a field goal because the market has spent two weeks throwing Clemson stock into the dumpster. Everybody else can take Belichick, the undefeated record and the freshman-quarterback narrative. We'll buy Clemson while it's sitting on the clearance rack with a sticker that says everything must go.

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