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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Rynearson Stadium in Ypsilanti, Mich.
Streaming: ESPN+

San Jose St.+130 over  Eastern Michigan

6:30 PM EST. We are in the overreaction business, and we may already have our first good one of the season. Eastern Michigan beat Sacramento State 28-17 last week and dominated the box score, while San Jose State lost 42-26 at USC. Put those two finals beside each other and the Eagles look like the obvious side. That's precisely the problem. Eastern Michigan was supposed to handle Sacramento State at home, while San Jose State was asked to travel to the Coliseum and deal with a ranked USC team as a 38½-point underdog. Now the Spartans go from facing Lincoln Riley and USC to Eastern Michigan, yet the market is treating them as though what happened last week revealed something meaningful about the relative strength of these two teams. We don't see it that way at all.

San Jose State actually showed us something worth buying. Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver stood in against a massive upgrade in competition and kept throwing for 60 minutes. He was sacked just once, threw only one interception and appeared increasingly comfortable as the game progressed. Yes, the Spartans scored a couple of late touchdowns after the outcome had essentially been decided, but we're far more interested in the fact that this rebuilt offense continued functioning against USC. Now Weaver gets an enormous drop in class against an Eastern Michigan defense that surrendered plenty last season and is not remotely comparable to what San Jose just saw in Los Angeles. After spending a week dealing with USC's speed, size and athleticism, everything should happen considerably slower for Weaver here.

Meanwhile, we're not prepared to elevate Eastern Michigan because it beat Sacramento State by 11 points. The Eagles are experienced, Noah Kim is a capable veteran quarterback and Chris Creighton has been around forever, but none of that makes this some imposing favorite that San Jose State can't beat. Eastern Michigan went 4-8 last season and its defense was a major weakness. One victory over Sacramento State doesn't erase that. San Jose State may be rebuilding, but Ken Niumatalolo has been coaching long enough to understand how to handle a difficult opening assignment and get his team ready for a far more manageable opponent the following week. The Spartans have also now lost seven of eight dating back to last season, which only further depresses their market value. Nobody is lining up to buy this team.

That's where we come in. One team just won comfortably at home while the other got 42 hung on it at USC, and the natural reaction is to want nothing to do with San Jose State. Strip away those results, however, and we're looking at something much closer to a toss-up than the perception surrounding these teams suggests. San Jose State has already faced a level of speed and talent Eastern Michigan cannot duplicate, Weaver has a game under his belt against legitimate Power Four competition, and the Spartans should find considerably more room to operate offensively. We don't need the points because we believe the wrong team is favored. San Jose State wins this game outright

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