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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

OLD DOMINION -10½ over Troy

S.B. Ballard Stadium – Norfolk, VA

7:30 PM ET. To many, this number looks completely off. But trust us — the oddsmakers are paying attention. This isn’t some early Christmas gift on the board. This is a primetime, standalone college football game, and when the lights go up on those spots, the market sharpens its focus. The Trojans are not being disrespected here — they’re being positioned.

Let’s talk about Troy. Yes, they led at Clemson earlier this season. Yes, they pulled off the stunning comeback against Texas State that had every highlight reel in the country buzzing. And yes, they ripped off a series of wins and covers that had bettors treating them like a hot stock before they ran headfirst into a wall at Arkansas State nearly two weeks ago. But that’s the key point — we’ve now seen both the floor and the ceiling of this team. The number tonight tells us exactly which iteration the oddsmakers expect to show up.

Old Dominion, on the other hand, has been largely written off since October. Early in the year, the Monarchs were one of the most profitable sides in college football, covering seemingly every week. Then came the stumble — the outright loss at Marshall as a 14.5-point favorite, followed by an absolute collapse against James Madison in which they surrendered 60 points in what was supposed to be their “bounce-back” spot. That sequence sent the market fleeing in the opposite direction. And that’s where value is born.

Right now, the market sees Troy taking back a “boatload” of points in a game it believes the Trojans can — or even should — win outright. The oddsmakers disagree. When a number looks too high for the favorite and too tempting for the dog, that’s your signal. It’s not a mistake; it’s a message. Old Dominion has quietly had two full weeks to prepare as well. At home, in a standalone window, in front of a primed crowd, the oddsmakers are telling us this is their game to lose. We’ll follow the market’s lead and trust the process, getting the Monarchs at a discount while doing so.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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