Pinnacle    +14½ -110     BET365  +14½ -110   Sportsinteraction  +14½ -110  888port  +14½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

PENN STATE +14½ over Indiana

Beaver Stadium – State College, PA

12:00 PM ET. We know, we look like gluttons for punishment after last week’s debacle against Ohio State but that’s just it. We stick with it because we know that the Nittany Lions have even more value here than they have perhaps all season.

Indiana enters this matchup looking every bit like one of the most complete teams in the country. Outside of its early-season struggle with Iowa, the Hoosiers have barely been tested; they’ve blown past almost everyone with an offense that has been consistently explosive and a complementary defense that has been dominant. On most Saturdays, the Hoosiers have dictated terms from the opening snap, and they haven’t shown many signs of slowing down.

Penn State, on the other hand, has been a nightmare. The Nittany Lions have covered only once all season, and last week’s outcome against the Buckeyes abandoned any hope for those that entered. Their most recent defeat against Ohio State was another reminder of what we have gotten all season long with PSU. The Nittany Lions were competitive early, within a field goal at halftime as a heavy underdog, and then completely overwhelmed in the third quarter. Two teams with a Jekyll and Hyde like profile all season long.

But this game presents a very different conversation — one centered around value rather than résumé. Back in the summer, Penn State was projected as a multi-score favorite in this matchup, with look-ahead lines touching -16.5 in some books. Now, the Nittany Lions are catching more than two touchdowns at home. That kind of swing — over 31 points when adjusted for preseason expectations versus current perception — is the type of discrepancy we are forced to pay attention to.

There’s also an intangible element to consider. Playing in Happy Valley, with absolutely nothing to lose; this is the kind of spot where a talented but underperforming roster can deliver its best game. It’s this kind of set-up where absurd things can also happen. Don’t be surprised if Penn State not only stays within the number but threatens an outright upset. They can do all of that. But we’ll take the points and let the chips fall where they may.

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