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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

COLORADO STATE +165 ML over UNLV

Canvas Stadium – Fort Collins, CO

9:30 PM ET. Colorado State has been in this neighborhood before, and the result wasn’t subtle. Remember that Friday Night game? Earlier in the season when the Rams were catching a soft number at home under the lights against Fresno State? The market lined up on Fresno and Colorado State punched the Bulldogs square in the mouth, winning the game outright by a comfortable margin. That was their last real high point — and the memory has faded quickly because the Rams are now 2–6 and coming in off an ugly 28–0 shutout at Wyoming. And that is precisely why they’re dangerous.

UNLV comes in no longer shining like the unbeaten juggernaut the polls flirted with in September. The Rebels raced out to a 6–0 start, but recent results have not been kind. The Rebels were dismantled by Boise State and then returned home only to suffer a deflating loss to New Mexico — a defeat that likely wiped out whatever faint postseason ambitions they still had. Thus, UNLV comes in under what we call a “bubble burst” scenario. When a team sees their season end, they are a good target the following week.F

For what it is worth, UNLV has been living dangerously all season and could easily have five losses. They nipped Air Force by three despite trailing much of the game. They needed overtime to get past Miami (OH) with a field goal. The timing of their UCLA win couldn’t have been more favorable — when the Bruins can’t get out of the gate — and let’s not gloss over Week Zero: UNLV was staring down a home loss to FCS Idaho State as a 30-point favorite before a furious rally flipped the result in the fourth quarter.

This is a team that has lived on thin ice. Now they’re expected to go on the road, in November, at elevation, and control a conference game against a Colorado State squad that has shown it can punch upward? The line is not a gift but a warning.

Colorado State’s record will chase away casual bettors. The number will attract UNLV money. That’s fine — let it. This is the exact profile of a late-season Mountain West ambush and history didn’t have to wait long for it potentially to repeat itself again. Once again, forget the points. Colorado State outright.

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