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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tulane +140 ML over MEMPHIS

Simmons Bank Liberty Bowl Stadium – Memphis, TN

9:00 PM ET. Last week, we faded the Green Wave because we knew they were in a look-ahead spot on the road against a very pesky UTSA team. The number said it all: Tulane laying 5.5 on the road was a stark warning, and they went on to lose by 12 to the Roadrunners. Their stock tanked instantly after that result.

Memphis, meanwhile, was widely considered to be in a similar look-ahead position. We were among those who challenged them, but the Tigers went on the road and beat Rice by 24 despite laying only 14. That win improved Memphis to an astonishing 9–1 ATS in their last 10 games. Their stock is soaring. They sit at 8–1 and after Tulane imploded last week, going into the Music City looks like a death sentence for the Green Wave. After all, if Memphis wins this game, they are at the door of punching a ticket to play for the AAC Championship and quite possibly sneak into the College Football Playoff thereafter which many are prognosticating they will do.

Tulane, however, is fighting for its life. A second conference loss essentially eliminates them from AAC contention and kills any whispered CFP credentials. And before we go any further, we must reiterate something critical: Memphis is overvalued. Not just because of what they've done this year — but because this team has been printing money for backers dating back to last season. When a team becomes a broken ATM for the public, the market inflates them. Laying a short tag here essentially puts Memphis on even footing. Had this game been played in New Orleans, Memphis might even be the underdog.

Nobody wants Tulane tonight either. They just lost to a 3–4 UTSA squad. Their offense looked inconsistent. Their defense was gashed. The immediate reaction is to jump ship. But value is born in these moments. And we remind everyone that Memphis is not immune to lapses. Three weeks ago against UAB and lost outright as a 20+ point favorite in the Battle for the Bones. UAB is 3-5 with an interim head coach. Tulane? Has one of the most sought-after names in this year’s coaching carousel and they are pretty freakin’ good too. Squids outright.

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