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-10½ -110 -10½ -110  -10½ -110

Posted at 10:00 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

N.C. State -10½ over Texas Tech

Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC

Streaming: ESPN2

7:00 PM EST. The market is still holding N.C. State accountable for what it considers a poor performance when a failed PAT by rival ECU enabled the Wolf Pack to escape Greensboro with a 21-20 win, despite spotting the Pirates 12 points. Furthermore, State led by 14 at half-time (then within range) and subsequently were shutout in the second half before narrowly escaping on a special team botch thanks to the Pirates. Despite covering like it was supposed to last week in a 55-3 thumping of Charleston Southern in Raleigh, the events of two weeks ago are still resonating and influencing the market with how they prognosticate the outcome of this one. For instance, if State could not cover 12 against ECU, how are they going to cover a price like this against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Football math does not work like that but what it does do is provide us with opportunities like this.

Unlike Charleston Southern or East Carolina for that matter, Texas Tech hails from a Power Five conference. They are also undefeated. Given that N.C. State struggled to get by an American Athletic Conference outfit and only disposed of an FCS cupcake, State does not look very appealing spotting double digits. Quite the contrary. You see. Texas Tech defeated Houston last week in Lubbock in a double-overtime thriller which resulted in the Red Raider faithful taking down the goalposts. That is because Houston began this season as a ranked outfit and Tech, a team that has been a bit of a Big 12 doormat, won a game at home against a quality side in dramatic fashion and that was enough for Lubbock to storm the field. That really encapsulates where this program has been.

Anyone who watched Texas Tech against Houston last week, will note the 14-point lead Texas Tech blew in the second half and the many opportunities that Houston had to put Texas Tech away until it found ways to beat itself. If one laid points with Texas Tech last week, they would have either pushed or produced a ripped ticket (the Raiders closed as high as -4), but despite this result, the market is salivating because of who Texas Tech beat last week overall and who N.C. State struggled against two weeks ago. In a nutshell, the market is overreacting to results and we are never practitioners of such behavior. The fact of the matter is that Houston is a far cry from N.C. State and the “Wreck-Em’s” won’t have the luxury of playing this game in Lubbock where they have some home-cooking to help them overcome their mistakes; nor will they be facing an opponent that manages to outcoach itself in big games like Houston has a tendency to do.