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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

MISSOURI +14½ over Arkansas

War Memorial Stadium – Little Rock, AR

Streaming CBS

3:30 PM EST. We’re not going to discuss Missouri that much here because this is a straight fade on Arkansas spotting inflated points. Market perception is that Mizzou is a weak defense and frankly, the market is not wrong, as the Tigers have allowed an average of 39 points in their last 13 games. Mizzou is 3-8 against the spread this year and that, too, does not endear them to the market.

Last week Arkansas went muzzle-to-muzzle with college football’s premier team over the past two decades. This year Alabama is ranked #2 but fresh in the minds of the market is that Arkansas took the Tide the distance in Tuscaloosa last week, losing by a score of 42-35. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that the Hogs treated the game like their championship through all the devised trick plays that were executed successfully to keep Arkansas within range as a +20½-point dog. After coming up short against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, the Hogs are now playing more “manageable” competition in their alternate home in Little Rock. When you combine the emotional letdown of last week along with the aforementioned variables, there is a great chance that we get a live underdog working with an inflated price.

Most importantly is that the market reacts in a big way to what it saw last and in that regard, it saw Arkansas go toe-to-toe with Alabama. Arkansas now goes from a 20½-point pooch to a 14½-point fav in the span of seven days. It’s also worth noting that Arkansas’ defense was torched last week for an insane 671 yards by Alabama’s offense. That takes a massive toll on a defense that figures to have a lasting effect one week later. We’re going to trust that motivation will be at a premium for the Tigers while we do not know how Arkansas will approach this affair. What we also know is that we’re getting a pile of inflated points.

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