Arkansas St @ GEORGIA ST
Arkansas St +16 -110 over GEORGIA ST

Pinnacle +15 -103 BET365 +16 -110 SportInteraction +16 -110 BetOnlin+16 -110 Bookmaker +16 -110

Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

Arkansas St +16 over GEORGIA ST

Center Parc Stadium – Atlanta, GA

Streaming: ESPN +

2:00 PM EST. The Panthers go from a 13-point dog (and a 13½-point dog the week before) to a 16½-point choice in one week. In other words, a 29½-point swing that can be attributed to an overreaction, as the Panthers upended the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at the Surf Turf by a score of 42-40 in what was nothing short of a thriller. Market is placing stock in this result but not considering all of the mechanics.

The Panthers led by eight when the Chanticleers would score in the final 1:09 of play. A failed two-point conversion attempt would serve as the difference maker as CC would come up a literal yard short from equalizing the game. It is worth noting here that Georgia State led by as much as 12 and enabled Coastal Carolina to come back. Georgia State was outgained, gave up more first downs, and Coastal Carolina held the ball for nearly 10 more minutes in terms of time of possession. Coastal Carolina out-everythinged Georgia State with their back-up quarterback who had just one game of experience under his belt as the heartbeat of their offense, QB Grayson McCall was sidelined with an injury.

Arkansas State has a seasoned vet under center in QB Layne Hatcher. He spearheads an offense that ranks 12th in the FBS in passing yards (320.7 yards per game). Hatcher and the offense has a savory match-up here against the 103rd-ranked passing defense of Georgia State (254.5 passing yards allowed per game). Georgia State’s defensive acumen was vividly displayed when it was up by a point against CCU, recovered a fumble, scored, and the Chants were able to drive the breadth of the field through the air in a little over a minute. Would one want to lay this quantity of points with a porous defense like Georgia State who needs its offense to bail it out?

Yes, Arkansas State’s defense is abhorrent in its own right but this game is a basketball game on turf, and the 65½ total signifies a shootout is expected. It is quite conceivable and likely that Arkansas Statehas a lead at some point in this game and then one is looking at a long swim for the favorite to cover.

Georgia State is 7-3 ATS on the year, 5-0 ATS in their previous five overall, 7-0 against the number after a straight up win, and 4-0 against the number in their last four stints as the chalk. Yeah, books are sick of paying out on the Panthers and have hung an inflated number this week.

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Our Pick

Arkansas St +16 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)

BOWLING GREEN +6 -110 over Ohio
NEBRASKA -1 -104 over Iowa
MISSOURI +14 -101 over Arkansas
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