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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

CINCINNATI -10 over SMU

Nippert Stadium – Cincinnati, OH

Streaming: ESPN

3:30 PM EST. Cincinnati has found itself the subject matter of many conversations in previous weeks, as they have failed to garner any respect from the College Football Playoff Committee despite being unblemished on the year. Despite being as high as #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls, the ‘Cats sit fifth in the College Football Playoff rankings. The CFP is reluctant to put Cincy in any of the qualification spots because they have no tangible result outside of their double-digit win at Notre Dame to validate their credentials. Piling on top of that, the Bearcats haven’t really been blowing people out either and even had a scare or two, as they have failed to cover in the last four games priced in the ranges of -28.5, -27.5, -22.5, and -24.5. Those four failed covers in a row means the market is sick of losing on the Bearcats and it also assures us that we’re getting the chalk at a deflated cost.

Recency bias is in play here, as the market was all over Cincinnati when it was covering at a high clip to begin the season. Last week, hosting USF, a cover never really seemed tangible as the Bulls hung around with the Bearcats for all four quarters until a late touchdown made the margin look wider than it appeared in a 45-28 win. The week before that, Cincinnati nearly blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter and escaped Tulsa. Two weeks prior to that, Cincy trailed Tulane at halftime. Cincinnati was a 12½-point favorite just a couple of days ago, which confirms our position that the market is eating up the points.

Finally, and to be frank, this is a mismatch when one looks under the hood. SMU’s air-raid attack, as proficient as it may be, is tasked with squaring off with the number five passing defense in America (163.3 passing yards per game). SMU's pass defense is one of the worst in the land with an overall ranking of 122nd. That is bad news for the Ponies, as they are dealing with one of the game’s best quarterbacks under center in Desmond Ridder who was considered a Heisman hopeful early this season. When you add in that Cincinnati has a favorable match-up and incentives to run up the score to accrue style points, the ‘Cats are primed to win this one big and we get them at a reduced price.

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