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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

KANSAS ST -2 over Baylor

Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium – Manhattan, KS

Streaming: Fox Sports 1

5:30 PM EST. Perhaps it’s because the Wildcats have established a reputation as a menace in the Big 12 when it comes to marooning the hopes and dreams of its front-runners, but the unranked Wildcats are the chalk here to the #11 team in the country who just knocked off the undefeated Oklahoma Sooners by a margin of 13 points. When we consider those elements alone, it makes K-State a must-play.

Though these two sides are separated by one loss, the market’s assessment of both parties makes it appear as if there is a much bigger trough between Baylor (8-2) and KSU (7-3). That’s because Baylor’s stock is high after a couple of high-profile results bolstered its market credibility, first a win at home against a ranked Iowa State team in September (they were +6½), a 14-point win as a six-point choice hosting a ranked BYU squad, a dramatic come-from-behind win in Waco against Texas, and then of course the big victory over OU last week in Waco. Key point is that all of these accolades were attained in their own backyard. Baylor’s two losses came on the road this year and while we can easily write off a loss at Oklahoma State as a mulligan, the Bears lost in Fort Worth to TCU as a 7½-point favorite to the Horned Frogs who were playing their first game after former Head Coach Gary Patterson was fired.

We don’t know which version of Baylor we see here but what we do know is that the oddsmakers are not expecting Baylor’s A game, as they head into one of the most notorious environments in all of college football: The Little Apple.

Indeed, K-State has just one more loss than Baylor, but their market presence vanished when they lost three consecutive games, first at Oklahoma State (where the ‘Cats led at one point), followed by losses to Oklahoma and finally Iowa State in Manhattan. It is worth noting that the Wabash Cannonballs (K-State’s other nickname) were within striking range in a 37-31 defeat despite taking back 12 points at kickoff. Kansas State would find itself behind the eight-ball at Texas Tech and would subsequently rally to overcome a double-digit deficit and win 25-24 to end their three-game skid.

When you consider the intangibles: known home field advantage complemented by two Baylor road duds, the potential hangover from BU’s win over Oklahoma, which was enormous for the Bears program, and the fact that Kansas State can certainly hang around in this game by way of X’s and O’s (even if pointing those out are not typically our modus operandi), it is discernible as to why the oddsmakers are taking such a strong position here and we’re going to trust they have it right.

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