Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
Florida Atlantic +17 over MARSHALL
Joan C. Edwards Stadium – Huntington, WV
Streaming: On MSG & Fox Sports Ohio, Fox Sports Southwest and Fox Sports West all in the Sports Group
2:30 PM EST. An angle we like to equip in our handicapping philosophies includes targeting a team that is ranked for the first time this season. Often, when a team becomes a ranked one for the first time, the environment changes rapidly and in many cases positions them to be working at an inflated number. In addition, these teams find themselves with a larger target on their back, as the opponent now gets bigger motivation to knock off a ranked team. It goes even a bit deeper. The team that reports back to practice on Monday after being ranked in the polls for the first time experience a bit of jubilation. They get complacent and a feeling like they have accomplished something. Always remember that these are kids and not pros so the dynamics are not the same.
The Thundering Herd come into this contest ranked #24 in the country boasting a 4-0 record both straight up and against the spread. When we combine this narrative with their shiny new ranking, their market appeal is through the roof.
Florida Atlantic. like several other college football teams throughout the 2020 season, have been egregiously affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Owls have struggled to make it to the field on three occasions this season due to players testing positive for the virus and as a result, FAU has played just one game this season: that game was three weeks ago when it hosted Charlotte and picked up a 21-17 win but failed to cover as a five-point choice. Given that Charlotte led by 10 and controlled the stat column, there are many that argue that the Owls should have lost the game even if they exploded for 21 points in the third quarter. Bearing this characterization of FAU’s performance against the Niners along with the tumult it has endured this season, the Owls are a hard team for the market to wrap its arms around before we even factor in Big Green’s appeal. Then there is Marshall’s dominance in this series as a whole. The Thundering Herd have won six of the preceding seven contests between both parties, and they have gone 4-1 ATS in the last five matches between these two Conference USA constituents. All of these trends only make Marshall more overvalued, which is our cue to swoop in on the points with FAU.
In case you were wondering about Marshall’s résumé this year, it’s not exactly a who’s who of college football. They beat Eastern Kentucky, App State, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. Both Eastern and Western Kentucky are complete garbage this year and the other two are not even average. If beating that quartet gets you ranked #24 in the country then we don’t know what the fuck we are doing with our lives.
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Florida Atlantic +17 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)