Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Streaming: SEC Network in the Sports Group
ARKANSAS +104 over Ole Miss
3:30 PM EST. The road favorite is the worst role for a team coming off a difficult loss or an all-out loss. Quantifying this angle is difficult, as it depends on the input definition of "tough loss." But whether it's losing as a favorite, losing in the final seconds or losing a game after holding a double-digit fourth-quarter lead, no matter how the data is sliced, trust us when we say that road favorite is the worst role for such teams the following week. Why that role? Any team that's still a dog despite being at home is probably perceived as inferior, so there's not enough fear or concern to instill urgency in preparation -- plus, there's no home crowd to spark the need for immediate atonement. In the case of Ole Miss, we wouldn’t call it a difficult loss because they were expected to lose but they played nose-to-nose with Alabama and gave it everything they had, only to lose by 15. Mississippi took its best shot and lost and now the road favorite angle after an “all-out” loss is in play.
Lane Kiffin and the Rebels put everything into last week's game against Alabama and we have to question their will to prepare for this one after coming so close. It doesn’t hurt our chances that Kiffin hinted that his team is dealing with positive COVID-19 tests, something a thin Mississippi team cannot overcome. And what about the physical toll that game took last week? Ole Miss increased its market appeal last week in a big way after they put up 48 points on Alabama and had the entire football watching.
Meanwhile, the Razorbacks figure to be much sharper and more prepared than the visitor. Arkansas has played the toughest slate of three games in the entire country. They opened with a loss at then #4 Georgia. They beat then #16 Mississippi State and last week they were literally robbed of another win by a missed call at Auburn. Arkansas would lose, 30-28. Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks has never looked better and now takes a big step down in class after throwing for 318 yards last week v Auburn. Wrong side favored.
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ARKANSAS +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)