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Posted at 10:30 AM EST

GEORGIA STATE +17 over UL Lafayette

Center Parc Stadium – Atlanta, GA

Streaming Subscribers: On ESPN2 in the Sports Group

12:00 PM EST. Situational betting is a practice we believe in. This spot has all the makings of a great situational spot as well as a great value play. First, let us begin with the selling point of the Ragin’ Cajuns, after their historic and quite frankly dominant win against Iowa State in Ames last Saturday when ULL came to a town as a 13½-point pup and went on to grab an emphatic 31-14 victory against the Cyclones. It was a shocker to be sure but more importantly, it alerts the marketplace, it puts the Ragin’ Cajuns on the map and it also subjects them to spotting an inflated number but it doesn’t stop there.

Such an important win for the Lafayette program will likely trigger a letdown against a team that they have never lost to. In the tale of the tape between GSU and ULL, the Ragin’ Cajuns have won all four meetings between both parties and so there has to be a sense of complacency for the visitor. We have to wonder what this price would be had ULL lost by 14 to Iowa State as they were projected to. As a result of one game in the middle of a pandemic, we get the underdog at a greatly inflated price. 

Last week, ULL was the hunter and Iowa State was the hunted in the age-old Group of Five versus Power Five dynamic. However, now the roles have reversed. Ask anyone in the Sun Belt Conference about Louisiana-Lafayette and they will tell you that they are one of the perennial powers in the league. For a team like Georgia State, a win over such a program would be classed as a milestone. Given the letdown susceptibility of UL Lafayette to come in flat from all the revelry of last week’s hallmark win, there is no reason to suspect that Georgia State cannot compete hard for 60 minutes here and come in well under the number.

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