Pinnacle +15½ -106 Bet365 +15½ -110 SportsInteraction +15½ -110 5DIMES +15½ -110 888Sport +15½ -110

Posted at 11:00 PM EST. 

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Wisconsin +15½ -106 over Ohio State

Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN - BIG TEN Championship Game

8:00 PM EST. Last week, we targeted the Buckeyes in their rivalry match with Michigan and found ourselves on the end of a ripped ticket when Ohio State punished the Wolverines 56-27 to cover easy as an -8½-point favorite. Despite the Buckeyes being a tough team to fade overall with a 9-3 ATS record on the year, we are going to stick with our assault on Ohio State for the same reasons as we always do. Once again the Buckeyes are overpriced by a wide margin. When some of the recent hyperbolic language that has surrounded this program is tossed into the mix, the Buckeyes are at risk for an even bigger overlay against a Badgers team that will come into this contest with a chip on their shoulder.

Ohio State has been dominant against Wisky as of late. In the last 11 meetings between both teams, the Buckeyes have won 10 of them. Over that span, the Ohio State University also produced an affable 8-2-1 ATS record. These two sides have met in B1G Conference Championships in both 2014 and 2017 and Ohio State would win both and in some cases submarine College Football Playoff prospects while doing so. As a result of the aforementioned, this will cultivate a recency bias and the “experts” that suggest laying points with Ohio State are playing right into that narrative. There is also the fact that pretty much every pundit has crowned Ohio State as the National Champion before even cementing their College Football Playoff berth. Some will argue that Ohio State doesn’t “need” this game to finish in the top-four. This kind of subject matter could serve as a rat poison for a team like the Bucks, as it sets them up to come into this affair looking past the Badgers.

Earlier this season, Ohio State and Wisconsin met in Columbus and the Buckeyes lit the Badgers up by a score of 38-7. In spite of that result, the Badgers are taking back just one more point compared to their closing price of +14.5 against Ohio State. This resonates with us strongly. However, the context in which Wisconsin comes into this game contrasts with the preceding contest. Wisconsin stubbed its toe on the road the week before against the Illinois Fighting Illini where they were upset outright as a 31-point favorite. It was blatantly obvious that the Badgers were looking ahead to the Buckeyes given how important the match meant to them. However, Wisky’s goals were ruined by that shocker, thus it was shell-shocked under Ohio State’s boot before they could catch their breath. We expect the opposite to be the case here.

Wisconsin comes into this game on a four-game winning streak capped off by a reclamation of Paul Bunyan’s Axe against arch-rival Minnesota in Minneapolis last week, when they hosed the #8 Gophers 38-17. The Badgers are playing their best football of the year and while they may not be able to get into the College Football Playoff, they can still earn a trip to the Rose Bowl and maybe ruin Ohio State’s season while they do so. While not ideal, these are still good consolation prizes for the Badgers who cannot only come in under the number here but they just might bring forth some chaos in the College Football Playoff picture.

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