Pinnacle +7 -109 Bet365 +7 -110 SportsInteraction +7 -110 5DIMES +7 -110 888Sport +7 -114

Posted at 10:15 AM EST. 

#200 UNLV +7 -105 over San Jose State 

Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, NV

4:00 PM EST. There is such a thing as betting a team too late. However, some “experts” may try to sell you a bill of goods that such an event doesn’t exist. This line opened with the Spartans being a 4½-point choice. The 2½-point line move upward extracts any value that SJSU boded in this spot even before we dissect the turbulent set-up. While one may call San Jose State a “steal”, playing the Spartans at this number actually plays right into the house advantage. The risk involved in getting behind the Spartans at this late number typifies what could happen when you bet a team too late. 

In this series, San Jose State has won eight of the last nine meetings, they have also covered in six of the previous seven. What that represents is more useless trends that exist here that will influence the market. Then of course there is San Jose State’s 6-1-1 ATS run in its last eight tilts, which has further inflated the price to get behind the team that keeps paying off.  It doesn’t end there. San Jose State is also a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this season. 

In a sport where subjective calls, bounces and penalties decide almost every close game, is there really that much difference between the 2-8 Rebels and the 4-6 Spartans? Sure, the Spartans have faced some high-powered offenses in Hawaii and Boise State where they hung 82 points on both sides but their defense also gave up 94 points in the process. Las Vegas knows this and they also know that San Jose State struggles mightily against the run, giving up a 126th-ranked 235.5 yards per game. The Rebs have a bull running back named Charles Williams and while UNLV may not be headed to the postseason, “CW” is just 67 yards away from a 1,000-yard campaign and his eyes will be bulging, as he will be looking to cross a milestone threshold and feast on San Jose State’s Swiss Cheese defense. 

Again, the Spartans are a bettor-pleasing 6-1-1 ATS but in this case, Spartans Head Coach Brent Brennan doesn’t have the luxury of playing the underdog card to get his team up for this game. Instead, the Spartans are a rare 7-point road favorite and it’s a role they are unaccustomed to, as Brennan’s Spartans are 11-32 SU since he arrived in 2016. It’s highly unlikely that there is gold left in these veins. Take the points.   

----------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

Get all the details here