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Posted at 2:00 PM EST. 

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Toledo +10 over BUFFALO

7:30 PM EST. These early weekday MAC games have been kind to us and we see no reason to stop now. Yesterday, we mentioned that the MAC East is as bad a division as you'll see, and the winner of the West will probably be a monster favorite in the title game. In this matchup, we have East vs West, as the Bulls reside in the weaker East while Toledo is in the West. Both teams are 3-3 in the conference, Toledo is 6-4 overall while the Bulls are 5-5 overall.  

Bill Connelly's SP+ numbers suggest that Western Michigan and Toledo are the class of the league. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. He created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008 and has made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

In any event, we’re looking for spots to buy on the best and they're not hard to find in this weakened league. We get Toledo plus significant points here for a couple of reasons. First, Toledo is winless on the road at 0-4. There is an overreaction to that. Secondly, Toledo’s starting quarterback Mitchell Guadagni has been sidelined for the last four games and is not listed on the depth chart for this game. There is an overreaction to that too. Junior Eli Peters has started the last three games and is on track to get the nod under center once again and frankly, it does not matter much which QB Toledo uses, as they are all efficient. Furthermore, Toledo uses the run to set up the pass. With Peters under center last week, Toledo outgained NIU, 508-444 and the offense was moving at will in the second half. Peters will be fine. 

Another reason the Rockets are taking back inflated points here is because they lost to Bowling Green. It's easy to understand the Rockets overlooking Bowling Green, as they'd won nine straight over their rival and this year's Falcons had lost their past four by a combined score of 201-27 -- and much of that scoring output came in the fourth quarter of a 62-20 blowout loss to lowly Kent State. Toledo still has the best coaching staff in the league. Great coaching is a good indicator for success down the stretch, as well-coached teams never stop improving and typically show well in November. Jason Candle is 10-2 ATS in the final five games of the regular season the past two years. He's in his fourth year at the helm and he’ll now take on an opponent that cannot be described as good and we’re also taking back a bunch of points to work with. Toledo can absolutely win this game but man, these points offer up too much value to side with the money line.

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