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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.  

#159 UTEP +12 -110 over Charlotte - Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX

3:00 PM EST. Buy-low/sell-high opportunities can materialize in the most inconspicuous of places such as a Conference USA tilt between two teams that won’t be found ranked in the College Football Playoff polls anytime soon. Both teams enter with losing records on the year. Most notably, the Miners of Texas-El Paso step into this game riding a seven-game losing streak. Their only win? UTEP’s season opener against FCS Houston Baptist , here the Hammers failed to cover as a 17½-point choice. In fact, UTEP was lucky to win the game, narrowly escaping Baptist, 36-34. The Miners performance record is not much better against the spread. On the year, UTEP has covered just twice. In both occasions, the Miners were taking back serious wood when they greened up as a 25½-point pooch against Southern Mississippi on the road on September 28th and as a 25-point underdog away from home on October 19th at FIU. The latter is UTEP’s last cover, as they have gone winless against the spread since then, failing to produce profits as an 18½-point pooch against Louisiana Tech on October 26th and once again as a 22½-point underdog most recently when they ventured cross state to North Texas last Saturday. Despite losing by 26 to the Mean Green, the Miners enter into this match-up taking back less points in comparison against a Charlotte team that has emerged as quite the upset artist in the previous two weeks. This narrative raises our attention.

Unlike UTEP who continue to succeed in playing the role of a bottom-feeder, the 49ers have made it known they are no longer bottom-of-the-barrel. Charlotte has staged back-to-back upsets of North Texas and Middle Tennessee State on their own turf in the previous two weeks, priced as a four and then five-point underdog, respectively. As a result of those two results, Charlotte could place itself in position for bowl eligibility should it notch a win here against these Miners and wrap up their season with a win in a manageable fixture with Old Dominion. Embellishing upon this premise, the stock on the Niners has also reached a new height as Charlotte finds itself spotting road points for the first time this season. Despite the vulnerability such a spot can poise for a team like Charlotte, the market heavily fades the Miners almost every week and this is the week that it’s time to move in. We assure you that the value remains on the dog and not with the favorite.

We write a lot about "bad favorites" since it's such an important concept, and every November brings plenty of ATS failures by weaker programs unaccustomed to the heavy favorite's role. Charlotte may have won the past two weeks but this outfit has been a consistent money burner when giving points through the years and now they’re being asked to lay doubles. The 49ers’ defense sits among the worst in America in, giving up an affable 37.1 points per game (125th in FBS). While Texas-El Paso’s ceiling may be claustrophobically low in 2019, there is little doubt that the Miners view this contest as one that they compete in and perhaps even win outright from their rhyming adversaries.

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