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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

8:45 PM EST. Allow is to say that we have great respect for the Dawg Nation and its program, as it is a classy outfit that goes about its business every year and continues to produce some of the best players in the game. While we hate to bet against Georgia, we are not in the business of praising or dissing, we are in the business of recognizing when an overreaction occurs, playing against that overreaction and letting the chips fall where they may. In that regard, the Longhorns offer up so much value here that they must be played and if we lose, so be it.

The last time this market saw the Bulldogs, they were in the process of pulling off one of the most unthinkable upsets of the year when they had the Crimson Tide by the throat with a 28-14 lead in the 3rd quarter. The Dawgs would lose eventually but the images of Georgia running the ball down Alabama’s throat and moving the chains all day is hard to get out of one’s mind. The Bulldogs defense also made the Tides’ vaunted attack look very ordinary most of the game. That, too, is hard to ignore and as a result of that great performance against a team that the media was selling “could not lose” we get a hugely inflated price here.

Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger has a 25-5 TD-INT ratio and is every bit Jake Fromm’s equal. Texas is solid at all positions, which include great receivers, a great defensive front and excellent linebackers too. Georgia has some edges, no question, most notably at RB and cornerbacks and they are the stronger team but the talent difference is not as significant as the points suggest here. Furthermore, Tom Herman is 12-3 ATS in his career as an underdog, with 10 of those covers leading to outright upsets. We’re just playing the true value here and are prepared to lose if it doesn’t work out, knowing we’re absolutely going with the best of it.  

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