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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

College Football Playoff National Semifinal at the Orange Bowl

Saturday, December 29 - Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL

8:00 PM EST. A popular narrative for this game will be Oklahoma’s Heisman-winning quarterback Kyler Murray being able to do what Baker Mayfield could not do against the Bulldog Nation last year but even if Murray has a big game, it still might not be enough to come in under the number. Remember, we’re not trying to predict what will happen here. We’re asking whether or not two TD’s is a warranted number or whether the price is too high or too low.

The last time we saw the Tide, they looked very much beatable against the Bulldogs of Georgia. Many believe that the Dawgs gave ‘Bama the game and to some extent, that’s very true. That near loss absolutely fuels public perception of the Tide, as they were being billed before that as a team that could compete with some NFL squads. That in itself is beyond ludicrous but it points to public perception. Alabama’s last game is stuck in the minds of a betting public that reacts to the last thing they saw. That opens the door for us here.

Oklahoma avenged an earlier season loss against their arch-rival Texas in the Big 12 Championship. The Sooners only gave up 27 points, which is impressive for them considering their defense was giving up 40 points to teams like Kansas with a less potent offense than the Hook-Ems. OU could have easily missed the Big 12 Championship on two occasions, as they defeated cross-state nemesis Okie State (a team they were favored by 21.5 points) by virtue of a failed two-point conversion by the Pokes in the closing stages of action. They were also on the fortunate end of a 59-56 basketball game on turf at West Virginia, where they trailed going into the fourth quarter. Oklahoma’s defense had two fumble return TD’s but had those bounces not gone their way, they would have lost and not even be in this conversation.

Finally, Kyler Murray winning the Heisman and the Oklahoma offensive line capturing the Joe Moore Award will have an impact on Alabama's emotional tone here. Guaranteed that Scott Cochran has reminded the defense of that every single day since Dec. 8. Oklahoma began the year without a single defender on any major preseason all-conference teams, and the Sooners' defensive struggles are well documented, including a midseason change at the coordinator position. Now the Sooners are going to need some stops from their defense and that seems unlikely from a unit that surrendered at least 40 points in four of its past five games and allowed several opponents season-best offensive production. It's not hard to see Oklahoma needing more than five touchdowns to cover, and it will take some turnover luck to keep 'Bama from hitting well over 50. That should be plenty enough to cover. Make no mistake that here are no questions about Alabama’s verity, as the only time they looked human was against one of the best teams in the country --the Georgia Bulldogs yet the market has put all emphasis on that. Again, that provides us with an opportunity to be spotting less than we should be.

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