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Washington St vs Iowa St
Washington St -3 +104 over Iowa St

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -3 +104 BET 365 -2½ -115 SportsInteraction -2½ -115 5DIMES -2½ -115

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

Valero Alamo Bowl

 

Friday, December 28 - Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas

 

Washington St -3 over Iowa St

 

9:00 PM EST. First off, the game opened with WSU being close to a TD favorite. Yesterday, the Cougars were down to -3½ and today that number is down to -2½. The narrative here is that the Cougars feel jilted by the selection process and aren't nearly as thrilled to be in San Antonio, as they would if they were playing in the New Year’s' Six instead of Florida or LSU. There are other things influencing the market too. Washington State put forth an ugly performance when it got blown out 42-17 by Michigan State last year and scored just 12 points in a loss to a depleted Minnesota team in 2016. Additionally, Mike Leach-coached teams are 1-7 ATS in their past eight bowl games (1-3 at Washington State). Leach's teams have been favored 11 times in bowl games and are 3-8 ATS with six outright losses.

 

For the Cyclones, who nabbed the Big 12's top bowl slot after the committee bowls, it's the most prestigious postseason berth in years, and the fan base has reacted accordingly. While the Cyclones are dialed in on what they see as a historic opportunity, Wazzu coaches heavily emphasized recruiting efforts in the first two weeks after the Apple Cup, and that has come with a cost to bowl preparation. At least that’s what the perception is. Furthermore, the Washington State Air Raid structurally resembles the Big 12 offenses that Iowa State sees on a weekly basis, while the Cyclones' innovative three-man "tite front" defense became de rigueur in the Big 12 only after Mike Leach left the league. That’s all just fodder and as a result of the all the negative narratives surrounding Wazzou, we get them at a true bargain here.

 

Iowa State lost to Iowa and TCU and also lost by 14 to Texas. If you saw TCU play a couple of days ago, you should be concerned about getting behind the Cyclones here. ISU beat a lot of very ordinary teams this season like Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Akron and they also beat some garbage teams like Kansas and Drake. Maybe Wazzou does indeed feel slighted here but there is also a chance that they come in with a chip on their shoulder and play their hearts out simply because they are being so disrespected by both the media and market due to one lousy loss to Washington in the season finale. What a sweet number we can swallow here and we’re not going to hesitate to do so.  

 

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Our Pick

Washington State -3 +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

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