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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pennsylvania +9½ -110 over Yale

Newman Arena Ithaca, NY

12:00 PM EST The Quakers have quietly been playing solid basketball down the stretch, winning eight of their last ten games while tightening things up defensively and forcing opponents into mistakes.Their defensive pressure has become a major weapon, generating turnovers and creating extra possessions, which is as we all know, often the difference in tightly contested tournament games where every trip down the floor matters.Their season life depends on it!

Penn also brings an offensive profile that can keep them competitive against a high-powered Yale team. The Quakers have shown the ability to stretch the floor with strong perimeter shooting, connecting at over 38 percent from beyond the arc this season. That kind of shooting can quickly neutralize a favorite’s advantage, particularly when an underdog can trade three-pointers for twos and keep the scoreboard within striking distance. When Penn is moving the ball effectively and finding open looks from deep, their offense becomes much more dangerous than their season-long averages might initially suggest.

The spread feels very, very inflated given how closely matched these teams can be in a one-game setting, fighting for this years season on the line. Yale certainly deserves respect for its efficiency and experience, but championship games in smaller conferences often come down to momentum swings and shot-making rather than season-long metrics. Penn’s defensive activity, ability to generate turnovers, and reliable perimeter shooting give them the tools to stay within the number. With the line offering a cushion, the value side of the matchup points toward the Quakers to keep this contest competitive, close and cover the spread. Take the over inflated points on this one!

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