Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Conference Tournament Season Begins – We’re Attacking the Unders

Conference tournament season begins today across college basketball. These tournaments determine which mid-major programs will earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament — the Big Dance — later this month.

There are 365 Division-1 college basketball teams in America, and every single one of them begins the season with the same goal: make the NCAA Tournament. Teams can get there one of two ways — by earning an at-large bid based on their full-season résumé, or by winning their conference tournament, which guarantees an automatic spot in the field of 64.

The conference tournaments begin today and the seeding is determined by each team’s conference record during the regular season. Take the Horizon League as an example. Wright State finished the regular season with a 15-5 conference record, earning the No. 1 seed, while Cleveland State finished 6-14, earning the 10th seed. Today’s opening round matchup features Wright State vs Cleveland State in Dayton, Ohio, with the typical bracket format of 1 vs 10, 2 vs 9, 3 vs 8, and so on. Even teams that finished near the bottom of the standings still have a chance — win the tournament and you’re dancing.

One exception is IU Indianapolis, which finished dead last in the conference and will not participate in the tournament.

Now here’s the key betting angle.

These games are not regular-season games. This is win-or-go-home basketball. Lose and your season ends immediately. That changes everything.

When teams enter a single-elimination playoff environment, the pace almost always slows down. Coaches shorten rotations, possessions become more deliberate, and every trip down the floor carries greater weight. You see fewer transition opportunities, more half-court sets, and a heightened emphasis on defense.

That’s why historically these early conference tournament games tend to lean under the total. It's also worth noting that most of these games take place on a neutral floor so they are playing to empty gyms. 

Oddsmakers often open numbers based on regular-season pace metrics before fully adjusting to the playoff-style tempo that emerges once the tournaments begin. We believe that creates value on the under.

There are 18 conference tournament games today, and we’re playing UNDER in all 13 games for two units each.

Here are the plays

Jacksonville/Bellarmine under 156½

North Alabama/Florida Gulf Coast under 141½

Stetson/Eastern Kentucky under 155½

Louisiana/James Madison under 133½

Eastern Illinois/SIU Edwardsville under 127½

Milwaukee/Detroit Mercy under 151½

Cleveland State/Wright State under 161½

Northern Kentucky/Oakland under 158½

Youngstown State/Robert Morris under 141½

Fairleigh Dickinson/Mercyhurst under 132½

Wagner/Central Connecticut under 139½

Chicago State/Long Island University under 137½

Stonehill/LeMoyne under 133½

Gardner Webb/USC Upstate under 146½

North Florida/West Georgia under 158½

UMKC/Oral Roberts under 147½

Old Dominion/Georgia Southern under 159½

Little Rock/Lindenwood under 148½

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