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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Georgia St. +110 over James Madison

3:30 PM EST Georgia State has been a different team on its own floor, averaging nearly 75 points per game at home compared to just over 68 on the road. That split matters in Sun Belt play, where familiarity and travel often swing close contests. The Panthers already pushed James Madison to a two-point game earlier this month, and that result alone suggests the gap between these teams is minimal. When the prior meeting is essentially a coin flip, grabbing the home side — especially if priced near even — becomes a strong situational angle.

James Madison has thrived in close games, but that success can sometimes inflate perception. The James Madison Dukes own a negative scoring differential on the season and allow more than 74 points per contest. While they shoot the three-ball well, their defense has struggled to consistently contain opposing guards. Georgia State’s backcourt, led by Jelani Hamilton, has already demonstrated it can exploit that matchup. If the Panthers can maintain their usual home efficiency and keep the Dukes from getting clean perimeter looks, the edge swings toward the team that plays with more offensive comfort in its own building.

From a betting perspective, this is about buying into home-court splits and regression in tight-game records. James Madison’s strong mark in one-possession outcomes is unlikely to remain perfect in a revenge spot against a motivated opponent. Georgia State doesn’t need a dramatic improvement — just modest defensive resistance and average shooting at home — to flip the result from the first meeting. With comparable offensive production and a venue advantage, the Panthers offer the sharper value play to win outright tonight.

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