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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

UNC Wilmington -8 -110 over Monmouth - NJ

7:00 PM EST Laying the points with UNC Wilmington Seahawks comes down to trusting the full-season profile rather than reacting to short-term ATS(against the spread) noise. Wilmington owns one of the best defensive efficiencies in the CAA, allowing just 67 points per game and consistently controlling the glass. That rebounding margin is critical in a matchup against Monmouth, as second-chance opportunities and one-and-done defensive stands create separation over 40 minutes. When a team can dictate tempo and limit extra possessions, covering a mid-range conference spread becomes far more manageable.

While Monmouth Hawks have been competitive and capable of scoring in bursts, their offensive efficiency metrics lag behind the top tier of the league. They don’t shoot at a high percentage and can struggle in half-court sets against disciplined defenses. Wilmington’s ability to defend without fouling and finish possessions with rebounds neutralizes Monmouth’s athleticism and transition attack. If this game slows into a structured conference battle, the efficiency edge clearly favors the Seahawks.

From a value standpoint, the spread reflects respect for Wilmington but doesn’t fully account for matchup advantages inside and defensively. Monmouth’s recent wins may draw public interest, especially as a team that has covered in underdog roles, but sustaining that form against one of the league’s most balanced squads is a different challenge. Wilmington’s consistency on both ends, combined with home-court control and rebounding dominance, makes laying the number the sharper long-term play in a matchup where depth and defensive structure should ultimately create margin.

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