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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Ohio St. +105 over Wisconsin

8:30 PM EST There’s clear market respect for Wisconsin and rightfully so given their offensive surge and perimeter efficiency. BUT when a ranked road favorite is laying a short number in a high-profile conference matchup, value often lies on the other side. Ohio State at  a small underdog role, signals that oddsmakers view this as essentially a coin-flip game on a neutral floor — and that makes home court the deciding variable. In tight Big Ten battles, that edge matters. Wisconsin won the first meeting, which can also inflate public confidence in the rematch, subtly shading this line toward the Badgers.

Ohio State Buckeyes have been a different team at Value City Arena, where their pace, shot selection, and defensive intensity all tick upward. While Wisconsin thrives from deep, Ohio State defends the arc well and typically limits clean perimeter looks at home. The Buckeyes also profile as slightly more balanced offensively in this matchup, capable of scoring inside and attacking downhill — an area where Wisconsin has been vulnerable at times. If this game stays within a possession or two late, the combination of crowd energy and familiarity favors the home side.

From a betting perspective, this is about buying into situational value rather than chasing rankings. Wisconsin’s recent scoring outbursts and top-10 three-point volume will attract casual money, but rivalry rematches in February rarely follow the script of the first meeting. The spread suggests separation is minimal, and in games projected this tightly, grabbing the home team — especially one with strong straight-up results in its own building — offers the sharper angle. Ohio State doesn’t need margin; it simply needs to defend its floor in what sets up as a high-leverage conference showdown.

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